AGP Executive Report

International Justice: Kenya’s Phoebe Okowa won a full nine-year term on the International Court of Justice, securing the country’s place on the UN’s top court from 2027. 2027 Realignments: Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja has left UDA for ODM as he eyes a second term, while Teso North MP Oku Kaunya and other leaders defected from ODM to David Ochieng’s MDG. Opposition Tensions: Rigathi Gachagua traded barbs with Fred Matiang’i and Justin Muturi, exposing strains among leaders seeking to challenge President William Ruto. Budget Pressure: Treasury warned persistent KRA revenue shortfalls could threaten funding for Ruto’s final budget before the 2027 election. Police Accountability: A Kenyan court has demanded answers over missing Tanzanian activist Twaha Mwaipaya, despite Inspector General Douglas Kanja denying he is in police custody.

Opposition Rift: Rigathi Gachagua called himself the United Opposition’s most committed mobiliser and defended his approach after Fred Matiang’i and Justin Muturi accused him of bullying. Wiper members endorsed Kalonzo Musyoka for the 2027 ticket and warned the party could run alone if he is passed over. Nairobi Politics: Governor Johnson Sakaja has left UDA for ODM as he eyes a second term, adding to the shifting party calculations ahead of 2027. Election Transparency: Suba South MP Caroli Omondi accused UDA and ODM of blocking proposals to livestream election results and create a public national results centre. Coalition Bargaining: Western Kenya leaders are pushing Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya for deputy president in a possible UDA-ODM deal, potentially complicating Kithure Kindiki’s bid to remain Ruto’s running mate. Governance: Kenya placed 10th in Africa’s governance rankings, but the report flagged corruption and insecurity as persistent weaknesses. Public Accountability: The High Court summoned Inspector General Douglas Kanja over missing Tanzanian activist Twaha Mwaipaya; Kanja denied police held him and said investigations were ongoing.

Nairobi Politics: Governor Johnson Sakaja has left UDA for ODM as he seeks a second term, intensifying the battle for City Hall and exposing fresh cracks between the parties. Opposition Rift: Fred Matiang’i and Justin Muturi have accused Rigathi Gachagua of divisive politics, while leaders remain divided over how to unite against President William Ruto in 2027. Security and Rights: The High Court has ordered Inspector-General Douglas Kanja to appear and explain the disappearance of Tanzanian activist Twaha Mwaipaya, last seen after an alleged abduction near Nairobi. Election Economy: Treasury warns that uncertainty ahead of the 2027 vote could weaken investor confidence and slow private-sector lending. Road Deal Row: Gachagua alleges Ruto pocketed Sh3.5 billion from the cancellation of the Rironi–Mau Summit road contract; the claim has not been independently established.

Nairobi Politics: Governor Johnson Sakaja has joined ODM, leaving UDA ahead of the 2027 election and setting up a contest for the party’s Nairobi ticket. Opposition Fault Lines: Justin Muturi and Fred Matiang’i accused Rigathi Gachagua of bullying and undermining unity, while Treasury CS John Mbadi urged ODM members to stop publicly debating negotiations with UDA. Russia Recruitment: President William Ruto says Vladimir Putin has pledged to stop recruiting Kenyans for the war in Ukraine; Ruto is also seeking compensation for those already recruited. Ebola Travel Ban: Kenya has called Saudi Arabia’s restrictions excessive and demanded a review, arguing targeted screening would be more appropriate. Court Accountability: Former Kiambu governor Ferdinand Waititu faces an additional Sh21 million in fines, or 13 years in prison, over money-laundering counts linked to a county road tender.

Opposition 2027 Race: Kalonzo Musyoka has rejected joining President William Ruto’s government and says he will face him at the ballot. Heckling at a Linda Mwananchi event and pressure to name a joint challenger expose strains among opposition leaders. ODM–Ruto Deal: Oburu Oginga is defending ODM’s partnership with Ruto as the party pushes for a larger share of the deal, including a possible deputy president’s post. Foreign Policy: Ruto says Vladimir Putin has agreed to halt recruitment of Kenyans into Russia’s military, with Kenya also seeking the return and compensation of affected citizens. Nairobi is scaling up Ebola messaging with churches as it challenges Saudi Arabia’s travel restrictions. Nairobi Health: County health centres are set to expand sickle-cell screening and care, bringing testing closer to families.

Opposition Politics: Kalonzo Musyoka rejected reported efforts to bring him into government, saying he intends to seek the presidency. Rigathi Gachagua, meanwhile, dismissed calls to reconcile with Uhuru Kenyatta, insisting they remain on the same team. 2027 Alliances: ODM’s push for a written pre-election pact with UDA is drawing criticism from UDA supporters, while some ODM MPs urge cooperation with Ruto’s government. The opposition also faces a tussle over its presidential ticket, with Cleophas Malala backing Edwin Sifuna as Kalonzo asserts his own ambitions. Mt Kenya Contest: Gachagua accused Kimani Ichung’wah of sending youths to disrupt rival rallies; UDA-aligned MPs are also navigating growing regional resistance ahead of the election. Foreign Policy: Ruto says Vladimir Putin pledged to stop recruiting Kenyans into Russia’s military, and Kenya is seeking compensation for those recruited. Nairobi Accountability: The Eastleigh building collapse has renewed scrutiny of construction standards and approvals.

Russia Deal: President William Ruto says Vladimir Putin has agreed to stop recruiting Kenyans into Russia’s military. Nairobi will appoint a defence attaché in Moscow to help return affected citizens and pursue compensation. 2027 Politics: ODM’s push for a re-election pact with Ruto, including a demand for the deputy president’s slot, is sharpening divisions over Raila Odinga’s legacy. Edwin Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi movement is also testing the opposition’s unity. Democratic Rights: Civil society groups warn that arrests, disappearances and pressure on journalists threaten democratic freedoms ahead of the 2027 polls. Cost of Living: Inflation climbed to 7.3% in October, its highest level in more than three years, as food and transport costs rose. Ebola Dispute: Health CS Aden Duale has called Saudi Arabia’s travel restrictions excessive, saying Kenya has reported no spread beyond the linked cluster.

ODM–UDA Talks: ODM leaders used Saturday’s Nairobi rally to press for respect and senior posts—including the deputy presidency—as the parties negotiate a possible 2027 coalition. Party chief Oburu Oginga said ODM would not enter a deal blindly. Russia Ties: President William Ruto says Vladimir Putin pledged to stop recruiting Kenyans for Russia’s military; Ruto is also seeking compensation for Kenyans recruited to fight in Ukraine. Ebola Diplomacy: Kenya has asked Saudi Arabia to lift its travel and visa restrictions, calling them disproportionate and warning of harm to workers, pilgrims, trade and tourism. Border Tensions: Fighting near Moyale has driven tens of thousands of Ethiopians into Kenya, disrupting trade and prompting local leaders to urge a ceasefire.

Rule of Law: The Law Society of Kenya says President Ruto is defying a court order on the Cabinet’s two-thirds gender balance. It has also given authorities seven days to arrest and charge suspects in the abduction of journalist Alex Kiprotich. 2027 Politics: Opposition tensions surfaced at the Linda Mwananchi launch, where supporters heckled Kalonzo Musyoka; leaders urged unity as they seek a joint challenge to Ruto. Former Kiambu governor James Nyoro has declared a bid to reclaim the seat. Election Security: Police chief Douglas Kanja warned commanders they could face consequences for failing to curb politically linked gangs ahead of the polls. Cost of Living: Inflation climbed to 7.3% in October, driven by fuel, transport and food costs, adding pressure on households as the election approaches. Regional Strain: Gunfire continues near Ethiopia’s Moyale border, with up to 50,000 people fleeing into Kenya. Nairobi Accountability: Rescuers recovered the first body from the collapsed Eastleigh building; 16 people remain missing, and Governor Johnson Sakaja said the structure lacked required approvals.

Opposition Politics: Edwin Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi party launch drew a public rebuke from Kalonzo Musyoka, who was booed after saying Sifuna must wait for formal nomination. Rigathi Gachagua said he would back Sifuna or Kalonzo if either wins the opposition ticket. Stadium Debate: President Ruto’s plan to open Talanta Stadium with a Bayern Munich–Ajax friendly drew criticism from Gachagua; Ruto aide Farouk Kibet fired back, defending the match as a chance to showcase Kenya. Public Accountability: Ruto apologised to Rex Masai’s family over the young man’s fatal shooting during the 2024 protests. Separately, the High Court ordered police and the DCI to produce missing Tanzanian activist Twaha Mwaipaya by Monday. Budget Pressure: Treasury is preparing its first 2026/27 supplementary budget for November, as revenue falls short and officials weigh how to clear pending bills. Police Oversight: The National Police Service Commission has appealed to the Supreme Court over its authority in police recruitment and promotions, prolonging a dispute with implications for thousands of applicants.

Cabinet Legality: The Court of Appeal declined to pause a ruling requiring President William Ruto to reconstitute his Cabinet over the constitutional gender-balance rule, closing his immediate path to delay the order. Opposition Race: Edwin Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi party is set to launch, but his presidential ambitions face a test: building a parliamentary base. Rigathi Gachagua says the opposition should wait until five months before the 2027 election to name its flagbearer, while talks over a joint strategy remain unsettled. 2027 Preparedness: Women leaders have raised concerns about electoral reforms and political violence, as police chiefs plan security for the polls and the Judiciary trains officers to handle election disputes. Party Politics: A tribunal’s decision to lift the suspension on Ukombozi Alliance’s registration gives Kalonzo Musyoka’s political camp a boost as opposition alliances take shape.

2027 Elections: Women leaders warned that political violence, costly campaigns and uncertainty over electoral reforms threaten fair participation. Police commanders are also reviewing security plans ahead of the polls. Rule of Law: The High Court ruled that President Ruto cannot reserve affordable homes for teachers and police outside the criteria set by law. Public Accountability: MPs gave the University of Nairobi two weeks to document billions of shillings in unpaid pension contributions and statutory deductions. Regional Governance: Kenya wants EAC leaders to reconsider a directive requiring national parliaments to pay EALA members, arguing it may conflict with treaty and constitutional rules. Party Politics: A tribunal cleared the way for Ukombozi Alliance’s registration to proceed. Industry and Trade: Mining CS Hassan Joho set a target for mining to contribute up to 10% of GDP by 2030, while Ruto urged Russia to invest in African manufacturing. Health Security: Kenya earmarked $2 million for Ebola preparedness as the outbreak spreads across the region.

Border Crisis: The UN says as many as 50,000 people have crossed into Kenya to escape fighting in southern Ethiopia, with women and children among those needing food, shelter and clean water. 2027 Race: President William Ruto’s running-mate choice is drawing attention, while ODM-UDA pre-election talks face resistance. Rigathi Gachagua says the opposition ticket is still up for grabs. Cabinet Legality: A fresh challenge over the government’s compliance with the gender rule puts the Cabinet’s legal standing under scrutiny. Rights and Security: Amnesty International wants authorities to find Tanzanian activist Twaha Mwaipaya, reportedly abducted in Machakos, and investigate his disappearance. City Oversight: The Eastleigh building collapse has renewed questions over Nairobi’s building approvals and enforcement. Foreign Trade: In Moscow, Ruto urged Russian investors to back Kenyan manufacturing, transport and mining as he seeks to expand trade.

Election Readiness: IEBC has shortlisted nine candidates for its CEO post, with interviews set for November 12–13. Chief Justice Martha Koome says more than 400 judges and court staff will receive election-dispute training ahead of 2027. Election Rules: A proposed change to election law has stirred confusion over livestreaming results, after MPs backed limits that critics say could undermine transparency. Ruto in Russia: President William Ruto is seeking new markets and investment, as Kenya’s imports from Russia reportedly outpace exports sixfold. He also announced Bayern Munich and Ajax will open the Raila Odinga Stadium on January 5. Rights and Security: A Tanzanian opposition activist remains missing after an alleged abduction in Kenya, renewing concerns about cross-border attacks on dissidents; rights groups have also sued senior security officials over alleged political violence. Nairobi Oversight: Rescuers have cleared most of the Eastleigh collapse site, but the disaster has intensified scrutiny of building approvals and inspection failures.

Foreign Policy: President William Ruto has left for Moscow to seek export markets, investment and security cooperation at the Russia–Africa forum. Election 2027: A disputed Elections Bill has intensified debate over livestreaming presidential results, while former Chief Justice David Maraga is warning that urgent IEBC reforms are needed. Opposition Politics: Rigathi Gachagua’s planned visit to Uhuru Kenyatta follows talks with Kalonzo Musyoka and Edwin Sifuna, fuelling speculation about a united opposition. Public Accountability: The High Court ruled that branding taxpayer-funded projects with politicians’ names is illegal; the Eastleigh building collapse has also renewed scrutiny of construction approvals. Border Crisis: Clashes in Ethiopia have driven thousands into Kenya, prompting leaders to call for urgent government support.

2027 Election: Former Chief Justice David Maraga warned of possible election rigging and urged urgent IEBC reforms, proposing polling-station publication of results and hourly turnout updates on a public portal. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki separately cautioned leaders against tribal rhetoric and political violence, urging debate on development. Foreign Policy: Kenya says it has not endorsed a candidate for UN secretary-general, clarifying remarks from Musalia Mudavadi’s office that welcomed UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh’s bid. Border Crisis: The number of people fleeing Ethiopian violence into Kenya has reached 36,000, the UN says; Marsabit leaders fear host communities will be overwhelmed and are seeking more support. Regional Rights: Tanzania is following up on reports that activist Twaha Mwaipaya was abducted in Kenya, while rights groups call for authorities to establish his whereabouts and ensure his safety. Nairobi Governance: A court has blocked the planned expansion at Bomas, adding a legal hurdle to the project.